17 December 2024

Analysis of Maharashtra Assembly Election Campaign 2024

-Harshada Gadekar

 India is the largest democracy in the world and the State of Maharashtra is no less than a Movie when it comes to politics and government as it is packed with thriller, action, drama, emotions and whatnot.

After the split in Shivsena and National Congress Party (NCP), The newly framed parties and their coalitions that is MahaVikas Aaghadi (Coalition of Congress- Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thakare)- NCP(Sharadchandra Pawar) and

MahaYuti (Coalition of BJP- Shiv Sena (Ekanath Shinde)- NCP(Ajit Pawar) stood for the first time in the battleground of the Vidhan Sabha election of Maharashtra 2024 with a new Identity, agenda and Campaign Strategy.

Political parties and candidates use election campaigns as a tool to prepare and communicate their beliefs and ideas to voters in the time leading up to election day. To get their messages in front of voters, candidates employ a range of strategies, such as written materials, public gatherings, traditional and new media, and more.

Comparative Analysis of MahaYuti and MahaVikas Aghadi’s Election Campaign Strategy:

1. Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT)

a) Excessive impetus to ''Ladaki Bahin Yojana":

Freebies politics is not new to Maharashtra India be it any party. The estimated population of Maharashtra in 2024 is 126.9 million and the women population is around 61.26 million. Mahayuti targeted 50% of the population that is women with lower income.

 

Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana's budget of Rs 35,000 crore was authorised, and eligibility requirements were loosened to guarantee that a sizable portion of the population would benefit from it. Around Diwali, the freebies were rolled out in a calculated manner. They were offered as "Bhaubeej" (Bhai Duj) gifts by male Mahayuti leaders to female voters, whose numbers have only been growing. It appears to have benefited from this.

This not only benefited the women but ultimately the whole family. Women who had secondary social status in the family were given importance in the family because of the money given to them by the government.

This freebie strategy without the promise of actual welfare-centred measures was replicated by MVA, but slightly later in the season. MVA’s narrative did not catch on because it lacked what the Mahayuti had strong political might and control over financial resources.

b) Increase in Wages/salaries of Government employees:

Approximately 12,700 Kotwal in Maharashtra, Gram Sevaks, and Home Guards directly get a hike in their income, affecting 14 lakh government employees.


Use of Political Power and Deep Research on problems faced by every region and pressing those factors and promises in relative constituencies:

A) Mumbai and Konkan Region:

1. "Marathi Asmita", Issues related to Marathi languages are a hot topic specifically in the Mumbai and Konkan region of Maharashtra.

Though it is deserved by the Marathi language to get classical recognition, at this very juncture of Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections by using union power BJP Coalition has given "Marathi" Classical Language. 

2. Toll wave-off for Non-Heavy Vehicles and Chawl Redevelopment Plans are other schemes during elections and their campaigning made it possible for Mahayuti to gain maximum support.

3. Also by establishing the Mahamandal of every community and caste identity of a specific region, Mahayuti also got to know the plight of the Mumbai Colaba Koli community and immediately started the work of Cold Storages and promised to build more and protect their economic independence over the sea.

B) Similarly in North Maharashtra, the main issue faced by farmers was an Onion issue.

Mahayuti fulfilled the demands of onion farmers which is 1. Stop the import of onions from Bangladesh and 2. Reduced Export Duty by 20% 

C) Marathwada

"Maratha Aarakshan" was a major reason for the failure of MahaYuti during the Lok Sabha elections from Marathwada.

However, the MVA was unable to measure this quiet undercurrent. The Other Backward Classes (OBCs) were being consolidated in secret by the BJP. It made use of OBC activist Laxman Hake's grassroots efforts, especially in northern and western Maharashtra. This tactic assisted in diverting focus away from the Maratha agitation led by Manoj Jarange Patil.

On both instances, the MVA was unable to refute Mahayuti. It undervalued Hake's movement and the "vote-jihad"/Hindutva narrative. Furthermore, MVA remained indifferent to the prospect of OBC consolidation against it following its success in the Lok Sabha.

D) Western Maharashtra

Using union power Loan Restructuring and waving off of sugarcane factories became easy., Micro Meetings of small Factory owners and promises proved to be helpful.

E) Vidarbha

The narrative of Ladki Bahin Yojna does not impact the Vidarbha region. The issue of inflation unemployment minimum support price to soybean and cotton issue was alarming.

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari and Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan were famous in Vidarbha. So, They arranged a speech focusing on promises such as More Orange food processing units, 3000 minimum support price (MSP) for Soybean, generally cotton with more than 12% moisture content gets rejected by factories but promises were given to farmers that moisture content up to 15% will be accepted.

 

Popular Narrative: "Batenge to Katenge"

At the national level, the BJP has been actively promoting the Hindutva card as a unifying theme for Hindus. The Hindu vote bank in the state was specifically targeted by the BJP and Shinde's Shiv Sena. Regardless of caste and geographic distinctions, they called on Hindu voters to unite. The phrases "batenge to katenge" and "ek hai to safe hai" are frequently used on social media.

Hindu religious organisations and groups, such as priests, kirtankars, and temple trusts, also backed the partnership. Hindu votes were swayed in its favour by the widespread use of Hindutva symbols in its local campaigns.

The narrative of "Samvidhan Bachao" was taken back in the VidhanSabha elections and didn't prove powerful as compared to Lok Sabha elections, because of the lack of execution and clarity of the agenda between the constituent parties of the coalition of Mahavikas Aaghadi.

 

Overall Agenda setting through various means:

Both parties successfully used mediums such as newspaper advertisements, television advertisements, Banners, and hoardings equally efficiently. But the Political Campaign on Social Media like Instagram, Facebook, and  Meta Ads was a stronger point of the BJP coalition than the opposition. Also, text messages and phone calls were targeted by the BJP coalition.  Repetition of the narrative and agenda of the BJP coalition was a memorable point for the voters to remember to vote on what basis.

 

Impact and Overall Result:

The multiplier impact of many factors and strategies allowed Mahayuti to achieve better than anticipated results.

With a vote share of more than 50%, the Mahayuti, a coalition comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party, was able to secure 235 of the state's 288 seats. Additionally, the alliance achieved the most seat share of any alliance or party in the past 50 years, at 81.6%. With this, the BJP became the first party to surpass 100 seats in Maharashtra in 30 years, a milestone previously accomplished by the Congress in 1990, and it repeated its electoral victory in 2014 for the third time.

 

The poor performance of MahaYuti and the win of MahaVikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha elections were seen as an indication of change from the electorate.

But strong political might and an appealing,  carefully structured narrative and campaign strategy designed by BJP-led Mahayuti resulted in cutting across caste, class, and regional boundaries.

 

Harshada is an MA (Political Science) student at Mumbai University. 

 

References:

1.https://indianexpress.com/article/india/maharashtra-election-results-2024-live-updates-rule-maharashtra-shinde-fadnavis-uddhav-9684286/

2.https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/how-mva-lost-the-plot-in-the-maharashtra-assembly-polls-101733150802592.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawHBcK9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHcD0ipgpCxuoeHl4g18LbOKMQRfEYwhK5Jbg24JLrLE_NCVV716FK-IOOg_aem_w2PqZ3z4oPFnBj4B-GXjIQ

3.https://theprint.in/opinion/big-strategies-gave-big-results-to-mahayuti-in-maharashtra-and-the-story-is-far-from-over/2374591/?fbclid=IwY2xjawHBmxdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHe-OY6YgA9gpJwtytgAc5U4sE5JVVbZB1bruREzxT8C-wNmasRPqrgiPCQ_aem_k7yDK0HrFxecUPxjbcQnew

4. https://www.thehindu.com/elections/maharashtra-assembly/maharashtra-election-results-2024-how-rss-stealth-campaign-shaped-mahayutis-victory/article68901868.ece

 

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